The first seven months of 2025 were a wild ride, though you wouldn’t think so with where markets are currently. Investors have progressively become more immune to policy announcements coming out of the US, expecting that anything too dramatic will be walked back or negotiated away. That said, the walking back of tariffs has resembled the proverbial boiling frog. Tariff policy as it stands isn’t too dissimilar from what was announced on Liberation Day.

Strong US corporate earnings outlook amid stable rates could lead to converging market returns, despite various policy and economic risks.